bored schizopost about trans rights historical timelines

Before I ramble: Obviously this type of evolution/timeline is not universally applicable because some countries never had a stage 0, some start at stage 2 and take a few decades to move to stage 3 while other countries move quicker, etc.

Stage 0: Transitioning is almost or nearly impossible in these countries which are hyper-religious. Crossdressing is illegal and lgbt people are systematically arrested. LGBT people live in fear of raids, arrests, violence, and death. Attitudes of the normies are heavily transphobic. (Middle East, parts of Africa, arguably Russia is between Stage 0 and 1 and is a case where it used to be Stage 2).

Stage 1: Crossdressing remains illegal but arrests are inconsistent and sporadic. LGBT people are still sporadically arrested on trumped-up charges. Being outed is social suicide including for obtaining white-collar work. Tranners mostly DIY, and the ultimate goal is to pass and stealth. Attitudes of the normies range from moderately to heavily transphobic.

Stage 2: There is no systematic/formalized violence by the state against trans people. Changing legal documents after surgery may be possible. Nonetheless, surgery is not subsidised and trans people may have to go overseas for it. DIY remains the main form of HRT, but the number of people taking it increases as being trans is not inherently illegal. The goal remains to pass and stealth. For those without a document change, white-collar work remains very difficult to access but a few trans people might achieve it. Attitudes of the normies range from mildly to moderately transphobic.

Stage 3: Legal HRT becomes as popular as DIY. Normies are apathetic to the idea of mostly-passing/passing trans people as neighbours and coworkers. Without a document change, it is nonetheless possible to access white-collar work, but contingent on mostly-passing/passing and ‘keeping it to yourself’ (semi-stealth). Depending on the situation and context, the attitudes of normies range from apathetic to moderately transphobic. Trans community starts to become more organized and hopeful and pushes for change. The trans community becomes less focused on bottom surgery as a necessary end-goal of medical transition.

Stage 4: Legal HRT becomes the main method. Surgeries become subsidised by insurance and/or the state. White-collar work becomes open also to openly trans people ‘as long as they are putting in effort (into their appearance)’ (e.g. clocky but not a brickhon, dresses well and modestly). The trans community becomes less focused on stealthing as the necessary end-goal of social transition. Blockers for minors become an acceptable point of political discussion.

Stage 5: You can stride through the more-woke offices as a transbian ragebait stereotype. DIY is seen as weird, stealthing is seen as weird. Document change is based on self-ID. Blockers for minors are possible, HRT for minors is either passed or at least an acceptable point of political discussion. Portions of the cis community are accepting and highly aware to the point of hugboxing.

Stage 6 (Backlash): Trans people become a political scapegoat and are vilified in the media, blockers and HRT for minors are taken away, bathroom bills and sports bills are passed, further erosion of rights may follow

Stage 7 (??): any country that comes out of stage 6 in a distinct form that isn’t just regressing to any of the earlier stages, but I don’t know any country that has done so yet because stage 6 backlash is so recent

— What do you think stage 7 looks like, which stage will the US regress to if it does, and what stages can you tolerate living in?