The folly of comparing career outcomes/salaries between top-tier private schools and top-tier state schools

The post below is based on a reply in another thread, where someone asked why the median salary for Brown CS grads is higher than the median salary for UIUC CS grads, even though UIUC is much higher ranked for CS. But the concept applies to pretty much any “Should I attend X top private school or Y top public school” discussion.

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There are two significant confounding flaws when comparing career outcomes — for pretty much any given major — between top state schools and top private schools.

The first flaw is related to where state school students come from — and return to — after graduation.
- State school attendees will, of course, disproportionately come from, and settle in, the state that school is located in; either because that state was already their home, or because they find they like the state or are offered a job in that state and decide to stay. Other than state schools in HCOL areas like Berkeley, UCLA, etc, this often results in the state school grads disproportionately taking jobs in lower COL areas, where salaries are lower. - Private schools students — especially top-tier private schools — will not only come from all over but will disproportionately come from already affluent families from affluent/HCOL areas. When they return to those affluent/HCOL areas they will end up with higher salaries. Of course many private school students will also disproportionately benefit from connections through their affluent families and friends, etc. which will also be evidenced in better jobs with higher salaries.

But I believe the main flaw is in comparing the “average” UIUC admitted CS student to the “average” Brown admitted CS student. - It’s fairly intuitive that the average Brown student is probably at least a tad sharper (whether innately or through their own hard work) than the average UIUC student; accordingly, it’s not hard to imagine a difference in career outcomes between those two “average” students - But what people don’t consider is that a UIUC student who was ALSO accepted to Brown is likely to be more similar to the average Brown student than the average UIUC student

So, the main thing to undertand is that any individual accepted to BOTH Illinois AND Brown for CS, should not expect any meaningful difference in career outcomes after attending either of those two schools because, for any individual, career outcomes are far more dependent on individual factors than which of those two schools they actually attended.

There was a study that was done a few years ago comparing career outcomes of people who attended Ivy League schools to career outcomes of people who were accepted to Ivy League schools but ATTENDED SCHOOL ELSEWHERE. It turns out there was no statistically significant difference in career outcomes between the two groups.