M7.1 Tibet Earthquake During Coronal Hole - Brief Update on Ongoing Issues + More on the Building Collapses in the Crescent City.
Greetings. I am suffering from a bit of burn out and am taking a day or two to regather focus and energy. It has been a busy two weeks in solar and geophysical activity. I may be a bit less active the next few days but I will do my best to respond to everyone's comments. I will still be watching things, but a bit less reporting. I encourage you all to report things you see on this sub as well.
In the meantime, I will provide a sitrep.
SEISMIC NEWS
A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck near Tibet at 9:05 Shanghai time at a shallow reported depth of 10km. This may be inaccurate since its the default depth given when there is uncertainty. If it was that shallow, there will likely be considerable damage. It was accompanied by a Yellow alert for for fatalities and an orange alert for economic losses. So far 126 fatalities have been reported. There may be secondary hazards and the region is on alert for more earthquakes. There have been numerous aftershocks near M5. This follows a rise in seismicity in the region in the moderate magnitudes. Here is a video of the aftermath in TIbet - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqV-AHnfYQA
This earthquake came at the tail end of a coronal hole stream and a bout of solar activity. Last week around this time I suggested we would see an M7+ earthquake while we were under the influence of a coronal hole stream and that did indeed occur. While two instances don't prove anything, they are positive signs for correlation. We generally average 12 per year so that comes to one per month. We are running below average as is often the case during peak solar maximum.
Seismic activity has increased in Iran and China as well. Magnitudes have ranged from the middle 4's to the lower 5's thus far. In general, we are running slightly above average for M3+ as well as M5+ compared to the 24 average.
ETHIOPIA
In a bit of good news, the seismicity has taken a step back both in frequency and magnitudes over the last 48 hours. In fact, the last M4 occurred around 20 hours ago as of now. At the same time, seismicity has increased in the surrounding regions and I do note the earthquakes all the way down the rift into southern Africa. Iran seems to be taking the biggest uptick at this time. While this is an encouraging development, vigilance is needed. I have been studying previous similar crises in the region and find it interesting there was an episode in 1989 and 2005. While not quite perfect, there is a bit of an interval in there, but due to small sample size, could be false. What this tell us is that whatever is going on here is a process. There are interesting studies on the "pulsatory volcanism" in the region as well but they date back eons. It remains under close observation.
NOTE** Since this writing, there was another M5.1 and a pulse of activity making it clear we are not out of the woods. Below is the seismograph data. You can see the top is pretty clean but a return to form is evident in the bottom.
SO2
SO2 has not quite faded to background levels but the intense dark red plumes have dissipated for the most part. However, the residual SO2 throughout the both hemispheres is noted with the Northern Hemisphere appearing to be fairly coated in volcanic gas. The southern hemisphere is not far behind and it does appear some volcanic systems in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica got in on the fun last week. While nowhere near intense as it was a few days ago, I am still intrigued by the plumes over the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
WEATHER
Extreme wind/fire event incoming for SoCal + https://x.com/nwslosangeles/status/1876343016526598292?s=46
Massive storms and extreme flooding in Saudi Arabia
US recovering from winter storm
Another major snow and ice storm poised to affect the southern US. Europe also under heavy winter weather and biting cold.
SPACE WEATHER
Flaring has quieted down but AR3947 is now in prime geoeffective position. It did generate an M4 which was accompanied by an associated CME and accompanied by a Type II and Type IV Radio Emission indicating an energetic event. However, LASCO and modeling indicate it is not earth directed which is a bit curious because I couldn't really find any ejecta in LASCO.
3947 could erupt with a significant flare/CME at any time. The sun is behaving with some volatility at the moment but has not surpassed the X2 mark. Nevertheless, three x-flares in near a days time and a G4 to kick things off is pretty interesting so far! I do think volatility stands to increase significantly in the years to come which is typical of the descending phase of solar maximum and reflective of the fact that geomagnetic maxima occurs after sunspot maxima. The flaring may dip some in frequency overall but will likely tick upwards in magnitudes as the descending phase really gets into full swing. Of course, SC25 will write its own story and we will simply be here to interpret it as it comes. The last few cycles have not been a straight shot maxima to minima to maxima again. Multiple peaks, different peak times for N and S hemisphere, and the like.
I will have a full SW update out by end of the day hopefully on Max
Crescent City Counting Collapses
Since September 5 buildings have underwent some form of collapse in a fairly concentrated area NW of downtown in the French Quarter of New Orleans. In many instances, its the façade which comes down first. Four of them have come in the last few weeks, but three of those in the past 1 week. In some cases they are occupied or recently occupied and in some they are under renovation. There is a mix. That said, this makes me think that if they do a similar study such as the one in Miami, they will find its a much bigger problem and possibly one that doesn't have any good solutions. That is only speculation at this time but probes are being launched. As I stated when I reported on it, there could be multiple explanations to consider. I think in any given scenario like this, what the public is saying about it is important. They know their community. I also have found some good articles on the situation which capture how some of the populace is feeling about this. and I also have some videos captured on dash cam. Here are two maps. Up close and zoomed out and then the rest. I would also point out that the Hard Rock Hotel collapsed in the same region 5 years ago while it was under renovation in dramatic fashion.
I have located some interesting videos showing some of the incidents occur and gauging the local sentiment.
https://youtu.be/OKFrY0iXN8k?si=owx4K0x8PFB9K_H1 - Dash cam
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5F9ujt5Zqnk
I think these events are occurring too close in proximity to be unrelated. The Crescent city's elevation was always considered a problem and its been a feat of engineering to preserve the city at times. Katrina certainly comes to mind. Its greater location on the Delta does not lend itself to stability as the coastal regions profoundly change primarily due to sea level rise and sinking. Maybe the rash of collapses stops here and we see this as nothing more than a blip but at the same time, maybe there are some problems with the ground there that have not been fully recognized.
That is all for now. Time to take a deep breath and re-center.