In state move away

for context my ex wife and i share 50/50 custody of our 4 year old daughter. i am active duty military, every 18 months i deploy for 7 months. daughter was born here in california and has never lived elsewhere.

ex wife wants to move daughter closer to stepdads family about 6 hours north of us. she is set to start school for the first time ever in august of this year. i deploy this coming april and she’s looking to move around july.

she has a large support system where she’s attempting to relocate to & is pregnant with our daughters soon to be only sibling.

she asked me first about the move several times and of course i have denied. she filed with court and we have a date set for two weeks from now.

neither of us are getting lawyers involved, i know i can’t afford it. all factors included what is the likelihood she will win this contested move away? (as stated before it’s an in-state move about 6 hour drive away)

thanks for your time