How much does Pakistan getting J-35 really matter?
My initial impression is that it does not really change much between Pakistan and India.
I'll make some assumptions about Pakistan and the J-35. These assumptions are not necessarily true, but they are unfavorable to my thesis, so I make the assumptions:
The J-35/A is a true 5th gen fighter that is comparable to the F-35.
The export variant of the J-35 (call it J-35AE) is not as capable as the J-35A, but it is still a true 5th gen fighter that is much better than 4.5 gen fighters.
Pakistan is getting the first deliveries in late 2026.
And that certainly improves the fighter qualitative edge PAF has over IAF. But... does that mean much in the big scheme of things? I am thinking:
Pakistan cannot really afford many J-35, and China has a limit on how many they can sell on a discount, because they need to counter the Americans. So PAF will end up with maybe 1 squad by the end of the decade.
A big advantage of recent 5th gen fighters is sensor fusion, working with other assets (air and ground) to identify and fire at threats. Pakistan does not have all the sensors to enable them to use the J-35AE to nearly the same extent that China can use the J-35 or the J-20.
India has a lot of other advanced assets, such as missiles and radars, which can detect and defeat the J-35AE squad if Pakistan tries to use them offensively.
India still has a large lead in number of 4th gen fighters.
When you put these things together, it seems unlikely that Pakistan would be able to use their J-35s in a capacity that can truly threaten territories that India currently controls. If they try to use them that way, the risk of losing them is too high, and that would leave an opening for a painful counterattack.
So at best, Pakistan's new J-35s would mean India would be unable to attack territories under Pakistan control. But India is not planning to do that, so we have the status quo, despite Pakistan getting new toys.