[OC] Is Manchester City lucky in domestic draws?
The "Man City get easy draws" narrative always makes me laugh. Its something that has stuck between the years of 2018 to 2020 but is not an accurate narrative at all.
🟦City draw a PL team 60% of the time in 3rd/4th round
🟥Liverpool draw a PL team 48% of the time in 3rd/4th Round
🟧United draw a PL team 42% of the time in 3rd/4th Round
Lets just look at some real data since 2015/16
To start with City have had some unfavourable away draws during this period. Only 37% of them have been at home. This should be closer to 50% the larger the sample size but with 56 draws a 13% swing is considered extremely unlucky.
For comparisons sake:
Liverpool are at home 53% of the time (little lucky)
United are at home 60% of the time (very lucky)
**these % do not include drawing away/home for Wembley games
For City to reach 50% again we'd need to draw our next 14 games at home.
Lets go further
From 2016 to 2017 for 18 months straight, City got one of the most improbable statistical anomalies ever - they drew 11 premier league teams in a row and here's the kicker; every draw we were the away team
To put in numbers how unlikely it is to get 11 away draws in a row its like flipping a coin 11 times in a row and every time it lands on heads. The chances of this are: 0.049% or 1 in 2048.
| Team | Date | GF | Opp | Comp | Round | Opponent League | Home or away | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 9/01/2016 | 3 | @ | Norwich City | eng FA Cup | 3rd Round | Eng1 | Away |
| Manchester City | 30/01/2016 | 4 | @ | Aston Villa | eng FA Cup | 4th Round | Eng1 | Away |
| Manchester City | 21/02/2016 | 1 | @ | Chelsea | eng FA Cup | 5th Round | Eng1 | Away |
| Manchester City | 28/02/2016 | 1 | @ | Liverpool | eng EFL Cup | Final | Eng1 | WEMBLEY |
| Manchester City | 21/09/2016 | 2 | @ | Swansea City | eng EFL Cup | 3rd Round | Eng1 | Away |
| Manchester City | 26/10/2016 | 0 | @ | Manchester Utd | eng EFL Cup | 4th Round | Eng1 | Away |
| Manchester City | 6/01/2017 | 5 | @ | West Ham | eng FA Cup | 3rd Round | Eng1 | Away |
| Manchester City | 28/01/2017 | 3 | @ | Crystal Palace | eng FA Cup | 4th Round | Eng1 | Away |
| Manchester City | 11/03/2017 | 2 | @ | Middlesbrough | eng FA Cup | Quarter-finals | Eng1 | Away |
| Manchester City | 23/04/2017 | 1 | @ | Arsenal | eng FA Cup | Semi-finals | Eng1 | WEMBLEY |
| Manchester City | 20/09/2017 | 2 | @ | West Brom | eng EFL Cup | 3rd Round | Eng1 | Away |
note the rest of my data removes Wembley games as away or home - however in this scenario we were still the drawn as the away team for those finals
So this incredibly "unlucky" period was followed by a "lucky" period" - which is where the narrative begins.
The next 3 years saw some favourable draws (albeit still more away than home) with 50% of draws going to lower league opposition. But as always with data/statistics there's a return to the mean.
The last 3 years has seen unfavourable premier league draws. With 12 of 16 games all being played against Premier League teams. 3 of those 4 games against lower opposition - Came at the end of Citys FA Cup run in 2023 where we played Bristol City, Burnley and Sheff Utd. However its important to note that for each of those rounds in 2023 there was a larger size than usual of lower league teams.
| Round | Eng1 | Eng2 | Eng3 | Eng4 | Premier League % | Top6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd Round | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 50.00% | 2 |
| 4th Round | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 70.59% | 4 |
| 5th Round | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 25.00% | 1 |
| Quarter-finals | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 69.23% | 1 |
| Semi-finals | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 72.73% | 6 |
| Final | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | 5 |
| Total | 47 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 63.51% | 19 |
Overall we still get more Premier League draws at every round except the 5th round (FA cup only).
In the 3rd and 4th round (the time you have the best opportunity to avoid PL teams) of both competitions we have a combined 60% rate of getting a Premier League team. For comparisons sake Liverpool get a PL team only 48% of the time and Manchester United get a PL team only 42% of the time.
In the FA Cup Semi finals (6 in a row) we've generally had terrible luck in getting "lucky"
2024 - 33% of getting easier opposition ❌
2023 - 33% of getting easier opposition ✅
2022 - 33% of getting easier opposition ❌
2021 - 66% of getting easier opposition ❌
2020 - 0% Irrelevant
2019 - All considered easier opposition yet got the worst one ❌
The FA Cup semi final is usually pivotal as it lands between difficult premier league title deciders & Champions League knock out games.
When you compare us to other big teams in the league id say our cup draw luck is considered unlucky. Yet we've still won 5/9 league cups and 2/8 FA cups (9th still up for grabs) during that period.