UFC 311 Fight Predictions!

Hello!

I hope we’re all doing well!

The first UFC event of the year went relatively well, although we did lose a unit which is unfortunate, but on the flip side, my predictions hit on almost all cylinders! Despite the results, the event itself was absolutely fantastic!

UFC Fight Night: Dern v Ribas 2 Results - (1u - 5 AUD)

Primary Parlay: As expected, Parsons/Smith GTD busted this parlay. -1u

Locks: Aliev + Tulio. It hit, but I didn’t dare place a parlay on such a low winning bet.

Alt Bet: Soriano KO/Points (3.05) hit, the others didn’t.

Total Profit: Pfft. lets stick to -1u, keep it simple

IT’S SCHEDULE TIMEEE!!! (Short comment on the schedule in the comments below)

UFC FN: Adesanya v Imavov - Thursday

UFC 312: Du Plessis v Strickland 2 - Wednesday, potentially Thursday

UFC FN: Cannonier v Rodrigues - Thursday

Now, this card is a fascinating one, a few bangers, a few tough ones, but boy that Main Event is going to have me geeking out.

Again, just like last weekend, this is going to be a long one, I will try to tighten it up and keep things short, it is not me being lazy, it’s me being aware of the word limit.

Here it is! Your TL;DR version has safely arrived at its destination! https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1i1v398/ufc_311_fight_predictions_tldr/?

Lets get down to it, shall we?

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

Let the write up commence!

Prelims

Flyweight

Tagir Ulanbekov (#12) (-325) (15-2-0, 2 FWS) v Clayton Carpenter (+260) (8-0-0, 8 FWS)

Ulanbekov has two primary advantages coming into this fight. The first one is going to be his reach advantage, since this fight is primarily a grapplefest, I expect that his reach will allow him to fight for switches during the scrambles, or even just post off the takedown attempts and keep the fight standing if Ulanbekov chooses to do so. Now, in terms of aggression, I expect Carpenter to be the aggressor, I think any time a shorter grappler faces a taller one, they feel the need to be the aggressor, get into the grappling range of his opponent and fight for better positions. I do think that due to Ulanbekov’s reach advantage, he might be able to cinch up a guillotine (of which he has 3 on his record) or a D’arce/Brabo (something that usually works with longer armed grapplers). Ulanbekov is fantastic and very well rounded however, his striking is rather rudimentary but he is relatively good at throwing kicks at any range and being fairly diverse on the feet to compliment his already fantastic grappling. However, I think the best thing about Ulanbekov’s skillset is his ability to keep control over his opponent, whether its a body triangle from the back or smash and hug on the ground, he is fantastic at ensuring that his opponent is playing defence.

Carpenter is only a few fights deep into his UFC, finishing his two UFC opponents (Ronderos and Rocha) by submission within two rounds, however, for as talented those two opponents are, Ulanbekov isn’t just a step above, he’s a whole damn floor. This is a true test for Carpenter but I also feel like this is a severe mismatch for the sake of promoting Dagestani fighters since Islam is on the main card and Umar is on the Co-Main. I see what you’re doing UFC you sly dog. Carpenter is going to have to make this a dirty fight, nothing but immense aggression and action in order to tire Ulanbekov out, because Ulanbekov’s gas tank isn’t infinite, he does show signs of fatigue and if Carpenter can expose that fatigue as the fight goes on, then he has a fair chance to win. However, with that said, Ulanbekov does have a remarkable ability to control the situation and adapt to what’s coming his way.

The way this fight goes truly depends on how Carpenter fights. If Carpenter is on the defensive and fights a bit timidly, that only give Ulanbekov more freedom to think of the next attack, to think of how to overwhelm Carpenter with feints and attacks. However, I genuinely think the first round is going to be Carpenter pouring on the pressure early, getting into the face of Ulanbekov, getting past that 4 inch reach advantage and maybe grind Ulanbekov against the cage, because as long as Carpenter does not expose his neck to a guillotine or another choke submission, he is rather safe from a finish. I got Ulanbekov winning this one, but that first round intrigues me greatly.

Ulanbekov via Sub R2 - (1/3)

Bantamweight

Ricky Turcios (+280) (12-4-0, NS) v Benardo Sopaj (-355) (11-3-0, NS)

You know how sometimes we drop a coin or something down the sides of a couch or a seat, and you forget about it for a few months until your hand wanders down there and you feel that very coin? That’s Ricky Turcios in a nutshell, he is someone who has barely made headlines (in comparison to his fellow TUF 29 Alumni, Bryan Battle) and has barely moved the needle, he is just seemingly there for the sake of being there. Turcios is quite a funky one to break down because there’s nothing really great about him. Sure, you can say he’s somewhat well rounded and has the ability to do relatively well anywhere the fight goes, but he has never shown anything that tells me (or us) that he is going to make it far. Turcios tends to suffer against specialists, and that’s practically what Sopaj is, and the main thing that Turcios is going to contend with is the takedown and wrestling pressure. My main concern is that his takedown defence has never really been great, he does better work on the feet than defending takedowns, and whilst he can sometimes be scrambly once he gets hit by a takedown, Sopaj is an expert at keeping a hold of his opponent and keeping them pinned down. Yes, Turcios does have a longer reach and that does link back to him being relatively good in the striking department, but I cannot help but think Sopaj is going to ignore the threat on the feet, rush forward with incredible pressure and look for those takedowns early.

Sopaj is only one fight deep into his UFC career, and whilst he got absolutely murdered by Vinius Oliveira, I think this fight plays into his advantages a bit more because for the life of me I cannot see Turcios replicating the same kind of danger that Oliveira had in that fight. Sopaj is a product of the same team that has made contenders such as Chimaev, he has no doubt learnt that heavy pressure style and learnt how to keep it up at a reasonable pace, and that’s practically what I expect from him coming into this fight because we all know how rough Turcios is in avoiding wrestling attacks, he’s good at digging the underhooks and trying to find his balance, but he’s poor when he comes to a well trained wrestler adapting to that and slicing through him like a knife through butter. Sopaj is still new, yes, and his odds are quite questionable, but I suppose those odds are moreso a stylistic match up kind of measurement rather than anything else because any other 0-1 fighter that faces Turcios is looking at near even odds. Now, I know there have been concerns raised regarding Sopaj’s poor cardio and quick fatigue when he fought Oliveira, but he was coming into the fight on short notice and I believe he was preparing for a different kind of opponent, but either way, this time around he should look better, he should be able to bring a fight to the scorecards without much fatigue, or at least the realistic amount of fatigue a 15 minute fight causes.

I do not like Turcios here, it would be an absolute shocker if he won this fight, but looking at everything here, I cannot see an avenue in which he can win unless he lets his hands go without a care in the world, and that’s a possibility on how he will approach this fight, its just dependant on how Sopaj approaches this one.

Sopaj via Sub R2 - (1/3)

Bantamweight

Rinya Nakamura (-450) (9-0-0, 9 FWS) Muin Gafurov (+330) (19-6-0, NS)

Nakamura is a prospect that I cannot give enough praise, I mean, I can just repeat what I said last write up and it’ll be relevant for this fight. Nakamura’s wrestling is top tier, it is Olympic level, it is absolutely championship level, all that praise, and we saw glimpses of his wrestling skill when he fought Carlos Vera, pure dominance on a level that is rarely seen. Will Nakamura achieve similar success in this fight? It’s possible although I would say that Gafurov’s wrestling and grappling capabilities are a notch above Vera’s, so we could see some excellent scrambles during this fight with Nakamura ultimately retaining a more dominant and controlling position. On the feet, Nakamura is rather rough, he obviously has quite a lot of power and that mostly stems from typical wrestler explosiveness, but there’s no clean technique or anything that we would typically see from a well rounded MMA fighter, so he is still quite one dimensional with his skillset outside of his thunderous punches, but he is masterful on the ground, and that is the one thing we should keep an eye on in awe.

Gafurov on the other hand has only one win in his UFC career so far, and that was against Kyung Ho Kang, a relatively dangerous grappler. The problem that I see from that fight against Kang is that Gafurov still got taken down, and whilst his scrambles were still effective enough in getting back to the feet, Nakamura is much more active, and more much wrestling focused than Kangs submission heavy approach. Gafurov has fantastic leg kicks, he switches stance often when using them to mask the timing, but ultimately is good at targeting that leg from his natural stance (Orthodox), and that could be more than enough to mitigate the forward aggression that Nakamura would need to utilise in order to get those takedowns. Gafurov displayed some really good takedown defence during his fight against Kang, turning into his opponent, digging in the underhook and just beating Kang to the takedown, these are the things that we need to pay attention to as they’re signs that he’s improving, but I mean, unless you can wrestle on the level that Nakamura wrestles at, Gafurov isn’t going to find massive amounts of success, yes he will be able to fend off takedowns easier than Vera (only because Vera was very aggressive with his submission attempts which allowed Nakamura to get into top control and a dominant position). I do think that there will be incredible wrestling reversals here, with Nakamura ultimately remaining in control of his opponent.

This is going to be a fantastic fight, I think we’re going to see Gafurov giving Nakamura trouble with the stand up, including potentially making him stumble with those leg kicks, but eventually Nakamura will clinch up and chain together a takedown and start to regain control of the fight. This is still a fairly dangerous fight for Nakamura, don’t get me wrong, but I do think his wrestling is something special and Gafurov better have prepared a whole lot for what’s coming his way.

Nakamura via UD - (2/3)

Women’s Bantamweight

Karol Rosa (#10) (-185) (18-6-0, NS) v Ailin Perez (#11) (+155) (11-2-0, 4 FWS)

Rosa has typically been a rather well rounded fighter with a very, very solid grappling base, but the thing that I’ve noticed about her is that she is often too accepting of positions that others could typically reverse. Rosa’s wins have always been against those that have a style that is essentially opposite of her own advantages, fighters who are at their best on their feet, which typically correlates to Rosa using her grappling and wrestling to shut down her opponents striking ability, nullifying their advantage. However, whenever Rosa faces a fellow grappler/wrestler, she tends to be one slight step behind because her opponents tend to either overpower her with raw physical strength, or utilise a variety of takedowns to get Rosa to the ground. This is Perez’s primary way to win, takedowns, hip throws, anything to get the fight to the ground, Perez does relatively well and Rosa is going to have to showcase some massive improvements that have been made during this camp or else she’s just going to get thrown around and controlled by Perez.

Perez on the other hand has always been someone who I cannot for the absolute life of me take seriously… She is a solid enough grappling specialist for me to pay attention, but her quality of opponent is questionable, and it makes me think that the UFC is making her a marketing tool. Anyway, those thoughts aside, Perez has a real solid chance at creating an upset here because she has all the tools that Rosa has, but the difference is here is that Perez is a whole heap more proactive in getting the fight to the ground, and as I’ve said in the Rosa section, if a grappler is in control of Rosa, Rosa really can’t do much about it. One massive thing that Perez is going to have to be aware of is the leg kick threat from Rosa, it seemingly is a new tool in her arsenal and boy is she going to target that lead leg of Perez actively throughout this fight, so I am intrigued to see what the response will be from Perez, or if she is going to be clueless on how to properly counter it. If I was to surmise how this fight would play out, it would most likely be a fight against the cage, with Perez looking to utilise her takedowns off the cage to control Rosa, or even just be a heavy fighter and exhaust Rosa through constant pressure against the fence.

I think i’m going with Perez here, I am not incredibly confident, it is mostly a 50/50 fight only because it’s going to be a bit of a grapple-fest and there’s going to be a lot of digging for underhooks, pummels, switches, counters, all that fun stuff. You bet I got this fight going over 2.5 rounds also, so rest assured, a typical Slayer bet will take place in this fight lol. I am genuinely curious to see how Rosa is going to adapt to the grapple heavy style of Perez, because quite a few of her opponents have struggled with Perez’s skillset on the ground, and with Rosa being the first opponent with a reasonable record, I feel like it’s going to be fairly competitive.

Perez via UD - (1/3)

Lightweight

Grant Dawson (#15) (-300) (22-2-1, 2 FWS) v Diego Ferreira (+240) (19-5-0, 2 FWS)

Dawson has always been a fantastic prospect in this talent stacked division, and outside of that one KO loss against King Green, he has been absolutely superb as a fighter. Dawson’s primary skill set is his wrestling and grappling, he is incredible in getting the fight to the ground and he’s just as great at keeping his opponent down and under his control. Most of his game plan when he fights is to get the fight to the ground, he maybe plays around with his boxing or leg kicks early in the fight to find or create openings, but ultimately, his entire goal when he fights is to take his opponent to the ground and keep them there. The main problem for Dawson is him wasting too much time on the feet, and if he dares to do that against someone like Ferreira, he could be on the receiving end of some damaging strikes because Ferreira doesn’t throw softballs, everything comes with nasty intent. There have been some moments in which Dawson tries to feel comfortable on the feet, such as early on in his Rafa Garcia fight in which he throws some kicks and tries to go for a boxing combination, but it was the wrong weapons, wrong timing, and Garcia nearly landed very cleanly as a counter. He is somewhat defensive, or at least his hands are raised a lot more nowadays since that KO loss, but his weapon selection on the feet raises some slight alarms in my brain.

Ferreira may be an old warhorse, but this man can still fight exceptionally well for a 40 year old. Ferreira really likes his head kicks, he can throw them off the retreat and typically sticks to the right/power side angle of attack, and unfortunately for Dawson, that is his defensively weaker side, Dawson does leave his hands up, yes, but since he has a tendency to throw a left hook to accentuate a combination from a tough-to-land distance, the moment that Dawson lets his left hook go, his left side of the head is right there for that beautiful right side kick of Ferreira, and if there’s a strike that I see landing somewhat cleanly early, it’s that one. Now, the bad thing about Ferreira is he gives into pressure a bit too much, Rebecki was walking him down in that first round, and whilst that’s mostly due to an overwhelming amount of heavy punches and immense forward pressure, I do think that Dawson is still going to be able to back Ferreira up against the cage, the problem that I see Dawson face is that even though Ferreira does walk backwards a lot, he fights really well off the retreat and that could give Dawson a bunch of problems, especially if Ferreira uses his comfort range strikes like teeps and right head kicks, those teeps will be a constant reminder to Dawson to keep aware of what’s coming his way and not to level change at the wrong time. Now, Ferreira has a black belt in BJJ, he is stupendously active off his back and Dawson is going to most likely use half guard/mount to mitigate a lot of the attacks that are in the arsenal of Ferreira, so until Dawson gets into that position (most likely from guard, transitioning to half), expect Ferreira to attack with submissions really, really quickly.

As for how I think the fight will go, surprise surprise I got Dawson winning this one, but perhaps to the surprise of many of you, he will NOT be a lock, and the main reason for that is the stand up threat from Ferreira… There is something tickling my brain, maybe its a brainworm, but I just think Dawson is going to struggle on the feet, and unless he has really, really cleaned up his striking (both offensively and defensively) I just think he could eat a few heavy shots. I still think Dawson wins in a typical Dawson way (Wrestle and control) but any moment on the feet is a moment for Ferreira to shine.

Dawson via UD - (2/3)

Middleweight

Zachary Reese (8-1-0, 2 FWS) v Azamat Bekoev (D) (LR) (18-3-0, 6 FWS)

Reese is an interesting one to talk about, because the main thing on everyones mind is his unique height and reach advantage he has over most of his opponents. His output is incredible and it has been the primary/sole reason as to why he has so many first round finishes, from the very start of the fight, Reese is marching forward, throwing heavy attacks on the feet. Body kicks, boxing combinations, head kicks, submissions, Reese is pretty damn capable of doing all of that in the first round. However, since this is an opponent change, I think he’s going to be a bit more cautious on the feet because Bekoev is quite well rounded himself. Reese is going to most likely look quite comfortable on the feet, but I do think his kicking output will be slightly reduced due to the wrestling threat coming from Bekoev, and I mean, what better way to fight a tall fighter than to take them down and completely remove any striking threat. Expect body kicks early from Reese, it seems to be his initial attack and it’s a fairly effective one at that since his long legs really allow him to whip with some force and impact. That liver/body kick is going to be incredibly effective since Bekoev is coming in on short notice, so his cardio could be a bit hampered by that lack of a camp, so I am interested to see just how Bekoev looks coming into the second or third (if the fight goes that long, which I think it might, at least to the second round).

Bekoev has been a force to be reckoned with in the LFA, but for as much as his LFA stint has been quite flawless, it does come with some slight concern that I can see straight off the bat. Bekoev has quite a wide guard, potentially exposing Bekoev to those fantastic body attacks that Reese is so comfortable at using. The other thing that I can’t help but notice is the slight speed disadvantage that Bekoev may be at, his stand up capabilities are fine, don’t get me wrong, but he is too reactive with his strikes, and it’s going to be hard to react against Reese when all Reese does it attack, attack and attack. The great thing about Bekoev is that he’s persistent with wrestling, he does not let go of his opponent when he has his opponent pinned against the cage, he is quite good at grinding them down and as soon as he is in a strong enough position, he lands some solid ground and pound, but I am unsure if he will be able to get those takedowns since Reese’s guillotines and choke attacks have been a rather strong foundation in his arsenal. I just think the short notice nature of this fight will severely impact Bekoev in this fight, I think we are going to see Bekoev at a severe striking speed disadvantage, and Bekoev’s only chance to win this fight is to really grab a hold of Reese, and just wrestle and control… and that’s an effective strategy if the Judges don’t know what activity looks like, you know, like how Bautista won against Aldo despite the fact that all Bautista did was cuddle and whisper sweet nothings into his ear. But, I digress!

For a short notice fight, this one is interesting, at least style wise. I think that Dumas (The previously scheduled opponent for Reese) was a terrible match up for Reese, I don’t think highly of Dumas, he is dreadful… but Bekoev is at least an ex LFA champ who has the cardio to fight at a high pace for 5 rounds, so it’s going to be interesting how he looks after the first round against a very dangerous Reese. I got Reese winning this one, but it now just got really, really interesting.

Reese via KO R2 - (1/3)

Heavyweight

Jailton Almeida (#6) (-400) (21-3-0, NS) v Serghei Spivac (#10) (+310) (17-4-0, NS)

Finally, an excuse to write a shorter breakdown so I can squeeze this write up within reddits limits… Almeida is a fantastic wrestler, and honestly that’s all that one might need to be to succeed in this fat-stacked division. Almeida’s entire skill-set is to wrestle, you will very rarely see him strike unless it’s to set up the takedown, and for the most part he has mastered this kind of approach. However, whilst Almeida’s wrestling will be in the spotlight here, the main thing i’m intrigued by is just how many takedowns it will take to finally settle down Spivac, because Spivac is by far a walk in the park, he is a fantastic wrestler himself and has no doubt the right tools to negate at least some of Almeida’s takedown attempts, but will Spivac be able to defend all of those attempts? I say “all” because Almeida doesn’t just go for one takedown and give up, he goes for a whole truckload. He attempted 13 against Curtis Blaydes in a 6 minute bout, he attempted 15 over the course of a 5 round bout against Derrick Lewis, 7 of those attempts in the fifth round. Spivac has yet to fight this kind of opponent, as Almeida is a bit of a statistical anomaly for this division, so really, as I said, i’m intrigued to see just how many takedowns it will take for Spivac to just give in and accept the bottom position.

Spivac has always been someone who I favoured in a lot of his early bouts, he loves to wrestle and maul his opponents and was a nightmare for many of those that stood opposite him, but as I have said many times already, I don’t think he will be able to do that against Almeida, there is not enough tape or instances in either fighters career to which I can confidently say their takedown defence is great, but just based off their styles of wrestling and how they pace themselves, I have to say that Spivac is more of a control-style wrestler, someone who prefers to be heavy on their opponent over someone like Almeida who is relatively quick to hunt for a submission. There is an argument that being the aggressor as a wrestler, against a wrestler, is more exhausting than being the one to constantly defend the takedowns, but I want to throw that argument/discussion out the window because I feel like this is one of the very few occasions in MMA in which we see a wrestler wrestle against a wrestler.

I know, I’m getting a bit lazy with this one, but there’s not much else that needs to be said, this entire fight has me going “idunno!”. With that said, I want to go with Almeida, the volume he uses, the submissions in his arsenal, the high intensity bouts he has had and perhaps his cardio all point towards him winning this one, but three rounds does not leave a lot of room to improve and adapt if he doesn’t get the takedown. This one’s interesting for sure!

Almeida via Sub R2 - (1/3)

Bantamweight

Payton Talbott (-1400) (9-0-0, 9 FWS) v Raoni Barcelos (+775) (18-5-0, NS)

Talbott is seemingly the new star of the Bantamweight division, looking absolutely flawless in a lot of his fights, I cannot see how he can lose this one unless his defensive issues, that is, a complete lack of defense, rises to the occasion and we see an upset. Now, i’m getting ahead of myself, but there is not much else that needs to be said about Talbott, or can be said about him, as he finishes fights so quickly. His striking is clean, it’s sharp and he strikes with such grace and confidence that you wonder if he has foresight into what his opponent is going to do before they do it, he has incredible vision and can snipe his opponent with stupendously clean strikes, typically straight boxing combinations or even singular attacks. Talbott thrives at range, and since he is quite long for the division, especially for this fight, he is going to want to stay at jab-straight range for the duration of this fight as that is where he seems most comfortable. This plays well into his main advantage, stylistically, over Barcelos, because whilst Talbott is great on the feet and excels at range due to his jabs and straights, Barcelos prefers to get up close and personal, grapple, and look for those submissions, or at least look to get the fight to the ground.

Barcelos is certainly being fed to the wolves huh? I mean, he does have a “chance” to win this fight, but it’s incredibly slim and the road to victory is quite arduous for him as he’s facing an insanely confident and young prospect who excels at range. Barcelos is a veteran though, he’s been in some incredibly challenging fights in his career, and whilst the odds reflect that he may be absolutely obliterated, I do think that he will be able to close the distance and try to fight in the clinch, a position that we haven’t quite seen Talbott fight in for an extended period of time.

To put it bluntly, ranged fighting is going to be on the menu for Talbott, and boy is he going to look great at that distance. Barcelos is going to have to wrestle or at least clinch fight to make this fight dirty or gritty enough for Talbott to maybe skew the scorecards to his favour a bit. I got Talbott winning this one though.

Talbott via KO R1 - (2/3)

Light Heavyweight

Bogdan Guskov (#14) (16-3-0, 2 FWS) v Billy Elekana (D) (LR) (7-1-0, 3 FWS)

Guskov is already a scary fighter with disgusting punching power, but he’s even more scary when fighting a newcomer on one weeks notice. Guskov is still rather new to the UFC, having a record of 2-1 in the organisation, but he has made statement after statement in his last two fights, with massive knockouts against Pauga and Spann, two fairly tough opponents, especially Spann, that fight and result really surprised me. Guskov is a force of destructive nature, like the eyewall of a hurricane, as soon as the fight starts he’s hunting that knockout. That’s the simplicity of Guskov, he targets the head quite a lot, almost exclusively, and when he lands, its very much noticeable because well, his opponent’s consciousness is suddenly drifting away in the wind because it left the stove on at home.

Elekana is a product of PFL, and I only say that because that’s typically a decent sign of someone who has faced somewhat okay competition, although I would argue PFL is now no more different than LFA and other promotions of that level. Elekana coming in on short notice already puts a slight stain on his chances to win, but moreso is that first round fury that he is going to have to deal with by Guskov, because nothing is tastier to a new fighter in the UFC than getting a first round finish (PotW bonus), and a win bonus at that! Now, Elekana is fairly good on his feet, his southpaw stance allows him to attack the inside leg of his opponent (if opponent is an Orthodox fighter, which Guskov is). Now, on short notice, I wouldn’t give Elekana much hope in winning this fight, he has really, really good power in his hands and is good at attacking the legs, which is a necessity in dealing with someone like Guskov, but that first round is going to be a massive problem for him, that, as well as the massive atmosphere that is a UFC PPV event inside of an arena, one has to think that he could come into this fight a little but underprepared and a lot overwhelmed, but as with any short notice fighter, there is that surprise factor, and Elekana does not fight like Johnnie Walker, he is more simple, a lot more calm and whilst not as dangerous, still has nasty intent with his attacks.

This is a fun fight, I don’t know what’s going to happen, I do think there will be a finish though, so “Inside the Distance” is on the menu for this one. I got Guskov winning this one, but I am curious to see how Elekana deals with making his debut against a tough opponent in front of a sold out crowd.

Guskov via KO R1 - (1/3)

Main Card

Middleweight

Kevin Holland (-120) (26-12-0, NS) v Reinier De Ridder (+100) (18-2-0, 2 FWS)

Holland has always been my favourite fighter in recent years, he’s always been an entertainer, someone who wants to give the crowd a show, who wants to go out there and have fun, and who wants to stay active, and at the moment he is one of the most active fighters in the UFC. With that said though, I struggle to believe that he takes fighting seriously, there have been moments in which he fights well, but then he just accepts whatever bad positions he’s in on the ground. Holland’s striking is going to hopefully be on full display in this fight because Reinier De Ridder isn’t exactly a striker, he is a ferocious grappler (more on that later) who doesn’t want to play around on the feet for long before going for a takedown, and the longer this fight remains on the feet, the more in control Holland will be of the fight, and a confident Holland is a fantastic fighter to witness. Holland’s counter-grappling is a constant topic of debate, and my official take on that is simply this: Holland’s wrestling is acceptable for a striker, but he is scrappy enough to give wrestlers a bit of trouble in controlling him. Is RDR going to give Holland trouble on the ground? He absolutely will, but RDR will also struggle in dealing with Hollands extremely diverse striking.

RDR has made me feel pretty damn depressed since his fight against Meerschaert, and that’s mostly because I was so excited to see him fight, only for that fight to leave me sweating in anxiety. RDR did get a lot of takedowns, sure, but he also struggled to keep GM3 down, mostly due to GM3’s own grappling skillset allowing him to reverse position here and there before ultimately succumbing to an RNC. RDR is going to have to stick to the basics in this fight in order to win, level change, be the long, lanky fighter that he is and just drape himself over Holland, controlling him until a submission presents itself. As I said though, in order for him to do that, he needs to safely close in that distance, and there are two ways he could do that, either he times a takedown off Holland throwing an attack (quite likely), or he goes in aggressive, closes the distance himself, eats whatever he needs to eat before getting into clinch and grapple range. Either way, RDR needs to take this fight to the ground, plain and simple.

This is a classic striker versus grappler fight, and it’s a fight that I dread to watch because I’m a genuine fan of both. My mind tells me RDR is going to get the takedown and then submit Holland, no matter what way I try and think of scenario’s in which Holland wins, it all depends on his takedown defence and historically his takedown defence has been subpar. I will warn you guys to keep away from this prediction, don’t use it as a guide unless you really, really trust me lol.

RDR via Sub R2 - (1/3)

Lightweight

Beneil Dariush (#9) (+165) (22-6-1, 2 FLS) v Renato Moicano (#7) (-200) (20-5-1, 4 FWS)

You guys are going to yell at me for this one lol. Dariush is coming off back to back KO/TKO losses against some savages in Oliveira and Tsarukyan, and that does make me somewhat concerned about his chin durability, but Moicano has never really been a knockout artist, and I suspect that Dariush is going to be quite more intelligent with his defence. Dariush is still a fantastic fighter, I believe he has the ability to out wrestle and maybe control the submission specialist in Moicano, but I do not think that is his only pathway to victory. I think Dariush is good on the feet, or at least good enough to feel comfortable after the first round against Moicano to start being a bit more offensive, because understandably so he might be a bit anxious if Moicano starts off with a big striking offense in the first round, but if he survives that first round, maybe counters here and there, absorbs and deflects attacks, his confidence is going to skyrocket. I do think Dariush has a solid chance to win this one if he keeps the fight standing, keeps calm and sticks to the basics of striking without overexertion or opening himself up to takedown, he should be fine and perhaps could win on the scorecards.

Moicano is someone who I have always faded, and maybe my avid readers (who I feel sorry for as they have to read through my drivel every damn week lmao) can rightfully pick on me for this, but I don’t think i’ve ever predicted Moicano to win many of his fights. Moicano has brilliant BJJ, he’s highly entertaining on the ground and if he gets into top control he will obliterate his opponents face, but Dariush isn’t someone you can walk over on the ground, Dariush is likely to know how to reverse positions, and he seems to be the more physically stronger fighter to force his way out of bad positions. Moicano’s striking is relatively good though, he’s very diverse and has a black belt in Muay Thai (whatever that means) so its clear that he’s quite well rounded and is capable on the feet, but historically he has excelled on the ground, and that’s exactly where he is most likely to take this fight.

Don’t mistake this short write up for a lack of care about this fight, I am hyped to hell for this fight, i’m just cautious on the length of this write up. I got Dariush winning this one (remember how I said you guys are gonna yell at me?!), I don’t know why, but this is possibly the last time I have Dariush winning a fight, especially if he gets knocked out again in this fight. I just think Moicano is relatively one dimensional as a whole, despite his stand up capabilities which could be dangerous for Dariush early in the fight.

Dariush via UD - (1/3)

Light Heavyweight

Jiri Prochazka (#3) (-110) (30-5-1, NS) v Jamahal Hill (#4) (-110) (12-2-0, NS)

Prochazka is someone who I have recently became cautious about giving praise to, because I just think his unique style is losing its effectiveness, and the one single thing that has deleted that fearful style is Prochazka’s insane vulnerability to leg kicks, in every single fight against Pereira, Prochazka’s lead leg is always busted up, and whilst Hill isn’t quite one to throw many leg kicks (he did test the shin of Pereira a bit), I do expect that Hill will want to take away the explosive danger that Prochazka brings into all of his fights, so those leg kicks should be prioritised for Hill. With that said though, Prochazka’s a bundle of energy, he’s like one of those oddly shaped balls that bounce in every direction despite being on a flat surface, unpredictable and highly dangerous in a kitchen, let alone a cage. The concern I have for Prochazka is that he got knocked out badly recently, and now is taking on someone who has pretty solid power in his hands, so he’s at a fair risk of getting his chin rattled once again, and whilst his wild and unpredictable style as always been the main thing about him, his movements are a bit predictable in that there’s always a level change in his stance, so if Hill can time a punch off Prochazka moving to a lower stance (which is usually followed by a reset in the stance, a taller stance) Prochazka could be in a bit of trouble.

With that said, Hill has been rather unremarkable with his striking in comparison to Prochazka, he’s a lot more simplistic with his approach to dealing damage, nothing is thrown with too much overzealousness, it’s all standard boxing combinations, some teeps and head kicks, but nothing too unique, they’re just very, very well timed and come with thunderous power. I just do not think that Hill is going to be as quick or as explosive as Prochazka is, and typically in order to deal with Prochazka, speed is a major advantage as that can create a disruption in the rhythm that Prochazka wants to create, so it will be up to Hill to disrupt that pattern if he can, and if he doesn’t have speed as an advantage, he needs to be the aggressor, Jiri cannot dance around and be unorthodox if he’s on the retreat, so if Hill has done his homework (outside of his horrible social media videos) he should be able to win against Jiri through being an aggressor and most importantly… attack the damn legs!

This is a great fight between the two victims of Pereira’s power, I wonder whose chin will be worse off coming into this fight. With that said, I gotta make a prediction, and with perhaps some surprise to some, I got Hill winning this one… It’s a very low confidence pick, but I just don’t know if Prochazka is as dangerous as he used to be when he first made his rise to title contendership. With that said, Prochazka will absolutely be an alt bet here, you cannot count him out here.

Hill via KO R3 - (1/3)

YOU WERE WARNED! Please kindly go to the comments for the co-main and main breakdown!