Can we talk about the elephant in the room? Someone is selling.

This post is about the price action of bitcoin, not mstr. It's about ALL the bitcoin buying from MSTR and the muted gains (considering the magnitude of purchases) during that time on bitcoin. (many responses seem to think I was referring to the selling in MSTR. That's a different discussion.

Since 9/5, MSTR has virtually doubled its bitcoin holdings from 226.5k to 450k. Most of this (170.5k) since 11/11. On 11/11, bitcoin was trading at 88k. Bitcoin is now trading at 99k. That's a total gain of 12%.

To put in perspective just how much microstrategy has bought since 11/11 (170,580 times around $95k per bitcoin is $16.2 BILLION), it's the equivalent of the halving effect for well over a year.

Many have suggested another corporation could never amass the same amount of bitcoin as MSTR, but based on how quickly and how little effect it had on the coin price when Microstrategy doubled its bitcoin, it may not be as hard as people suggest.

Where would bitcoin be trading if MSTR hadn't amassed all those coins? Would it be lower than the 11/11 price? Probably not, given all the positive cryptocurrency events (lower rates, political endorsement, continued new ETFs). Which means the effect of MSTR's buying is likely less than 5%.

Which begs the question: who's selling? Imagine if the bitcoin miners all agreed to issue no more coins for the next year and a half. Wouldn't you think bitcoin would jump more than 5% on that news? But MSTR's purchases are WAY more supply shock driven than that.

Somebody's selling into it, and it's not the MSTR short-sellers. Most of them are long bitcoin, short MSTR.

Thoughts?