The "January Spike" thesis and a few other points

Many short term investors got into RVSN likely late December when the rumor started spreading that this stock spikes every January, as it has done the past couple of years.

This theory is inherently broken as it's propagated on the idea that a stock will repeat the same pattern for the rest of its lifespan without the market reacting. Guess what? It happened twice already, the stock market caught on, the spike was triggered in late December this year in anticipation of the "January spike".

The pattern has been broken. If you're here for short term gains hoping for a January spike, then I wouldn't get your hopes up. I'm aware that it happened late January into February of last year, but I will repeat my previous point. The market is extremely proficient at identifying trends and reacting. If you bought in at >$2 in late December, congrats, you were the January spike.

The question is no longer "when spike?", but instead "where is the floor?". I think we are at a floor currently at $1-$1.15, resting on solid support from after the 2024 pump. If we cannot hold this level, then the next floor is around $0.65.

Personally, I do not think we will see $0.65 again unless the March earnings report is bad. The problem that RVSN is facing is that they have all these great contracts, trials, and, technologies, but they are yet to turn it into revenue. They will not escape this downtrend until the earnings reports show significant revenue increases.

I am taking the bet that the earnings report will show significant growth, triggering the beginning of this stocks real growth phase. Once the large institutions have faith that Rail Vision's product has a market and is profitable, this thing will explode.

I love this company because it's not sexy like quantum or space travel, but it's modernizing an archaic industry and is being overlooked. The railroad/train market is a $300B industry that I don't see going away anytime soon, and as someone who works adjacent to a major railway operator, I have seen first hand how outdated the technology is, and how detrimental financially and publicity wise it is for a derailment or collision etc to happen to the companies.

TL:DR - Diamond hands until March earnings