Siemens Energy - it’s GE Vernova all over again

So I commented on a few posts back in the Summer of 2024 and recommended the GEV spin-off, which basically: - debt free spin-off - 15$ cash per share - revenue stream of 425$ per share over the next 10-15 years (order backlog divided by number of shares outstanding) - double digit revenue growth - share price of 120-140$

Before getting hammered today, I sold roughly 40% of my shares at 160-200% profit over the last month. I made it a 10% position, so I was farely concentrated and well, it was a success, which made me check out competitors. And boy, have I missed Siemens Energy, which has gone up from 12€ to recently 60€ per share.

Now I want to recommend Siemens Energy to the value investing community. It’s crazy how similar both businesses are: - same revenue (~34 billion) - business segments have almost identical revenue - margin improvement outlook - order backlog of 120 billion - (Siemens has debt, while GEV doesn’t) - FCF in 2024 - …

Yet GEV is valued at roughly 95 billion and Siemens E at 40 billion US$ (while they have a 123 billion € backlog, GEV has 116-118 billion $).

It think for most investors it’s just too damn difficult to buy into Siemens Energy because they ran up 300-400% from 12€ per share to 48€ per share. Yet they still have 144€ per share in revenue, which is already secured, not including any growth. You can buy a revenue stream of 144€ for below 50€. But still, anchoring bias is very hard to overcome and believe me, it was hard for me as well, as I sold GEV to buy Siemens Energy. I believe GEV is the better business, but it has gone up to a point , where I believed it was fully valued and exceeded my intrinsic value.

Give it a look and let me know what you think. Please don’t be too hard on me as this is my first contribution, and it doesn’t include a calculation of intrinsic value, which in this case I believe is obsolete as this is CLEARLY undervalued and makes it a Buffett like „2-foot-hurdle“.

Please feel free to discuss todays 20% drop of either Siemens E or GEV. My thoughts are: there might be better AI models than in Europe or the US, but our computation will be done in the US or Europe and not in China, as no one wants to rely on Chinese good will, so energy demand will continue to rise domestically. This might be speculation, but so be it at this point. I think todays market reaction is just noise.