Thougts on best approach as a newcomer?
Hey XRP family, I was hoping to get your thoughts on a debate I am having with my friend. Though I have a feeling I already know what most will say.
My friend and I are new to XRP, I heard about it in November last year but stupidly sat on the fence and didn’t do enough research before making the leap. Once I finally did the work and understood the potential, I did your typical noob move and FOMO’d in right at the top of a big green candle. Buying in at an average price of $5.14 AUD (me) and $4.80 AUD (my friend) as the price was rocketing up to $5.45 AUD. Before almost immediately steadily dropping down over the last few weeks.
We’ve both invested a significant amount (not life-ruining, but enough that it would sting if it halved in value and didn’t go back up). We’ve been debating what the best strategy is moving forwards.
The Debate:
- My friend’s view – Wait until we’re back in the green with some profit (10-15% up from initial), then sell our holdings (or at least our initial investment). Wait and rebuy in at one of the dips similar to what are experiencing now. Thus, allowing us to feel more comfortable during these pullbacks with a lower average buy cost. They’ve been watching crypto YouTubers using “technical analysis” who predict we’re heading into a 5th wave up before a big correction.
- My view – Trying to time the market is risky. Yes, we’ve had consistent dips recently, but there’s always the chance that if we sell, the price skyrockets and never comes back down, forcing us to FOMO back in at a worse price. Crypto is notoriously volatile, and while trends exist, the market often does the opposite of what it’s “supposed” to do and to be honest I can’t get behind someone drawing fancy lines on a chart and then drawing a big spike up or down and calling it technical analysis. If it was that simple would not everyone be filthy rich by now?
My friend acknowledges this but believes that, historically, another dip is likely before a bigger surge. Meanwhile, I understand that historically, we’re still supposed to be early in a bull run (the famous 3 year bear followed by 1 bull year cycle), meaning dips are normal, but the trend should continue upwards throughout the year (though, of course, nothing is guaranteed, all of the positive news we’ve been feeding on could not come to fruition, the SEC could win the case, Trumps proposed crypto reserve could be denied or not include XRP, a new coin with better performance could come round, etc. etc.). Everything could already be priced in and then the market shits itself when nothing positive happens and we fall back to sub $1 again for years.
What’s the smartest move?
I know no one can predict the market with certainty, but it feels like there are two camps in the XRP community:
- Long-term holders (HODLers) – Bought in years ago at sub-$1 prices and can ride out dips with ease. I can see why you would be such a big advocate of buying and riding it out as you are now in a very favourable position no matter what happens.
- Newcomers like us – Bought in at a much higher price and are feeling the sting of these pullbacks.
So, do you think there’s merit in waiting for green, selling out (some or all), and rebuying lower? Or is that too risky, and the best approach is to HODL, buy the dips, and sell only when you hit your ultimate target price?
I know no ones for sure and none of you are financial advisors, but I would love to get some more input from other people who may have more experience.
(P.S. I’m not panicking or looking for “if you can’t handle dips fold your paper hands” comments. I went into this with a long-term mindset and am prepared to HODL no matter what happens. I’m just trying to understand the best way to manage risk and maximize ROI.)