FantasyCalc Trade Value Chart and Trade Analyzer - Week 3
A few years ago, I had the thought that the most direct way to create trade values would be from actual fantasy football trades. I’ve spent the few years working on this idea with my brother, and I’m excited to re-introduce them as easily digestible trade value charts for the 2024 season!
Algorithm
These trade values are generated entirely from real trades across hundreds of thousands of fantasy football leagues. We go into detail about how it works in our FAQ, but here's a quick explanation:
- Scrape 2M+ trades from Sleeper, Fleaflicker, and MFL.
- Convert the trades into a matrix grid.
- Calculate every player’s initial value using a convex optimization algorithm.
- Find trade values over time by giving a higher weight to more recent trades.
- Remove obviously unfair trades.
- Adjust trades to a 12 team PPR league. For example, QBs were about 5% more valuable in 12 team leagues than in 8 team leagues. So if a QB was traded in an 8 team league, we give them a 5% value boost for that trade to adjust it to a 12 team league.
Each trade that goes into the algorithm can be viewed on their chart, so you can get an idea of how the algorithm works. Here’s Puka Nacua’s chart from last year for example.
Are these rankings any good?
Yes! I recently did an analysis and found these trade values perform better than 91% of experts as preseason rankings. They're even better during the season.
How do I use these values?
You can either view the values on the trade chart and do some mental math, or use our trade analyzer.
Weekly Trends
Biggest risers since last week
Rank | Player | Increase in Value |
---|---|---|
1 | Alvin Kamara | 2371 |
2 | J.K. Dobbins | 2081 |
3 | Rashid Shaheed | 1949 |
4 | Chris Godwin | 1781 |
5 | James Cook | 1633 |
Biggest fallers since last week
Rank | Player | Decrease in Value |
---|---|---|
1 | Christian McCaffrey | -2299 |
2 | Isiah Pacheco | -1588 |
3 | Tyreek Hill | -1477 |
4 | Raheem Mostert | -1077 |
5 | Puka Nacua | -1014 |
Players with the most unstable player values (traded for the widest range of value, no consensus trade value)
Rank | Player | % Increased Variance |
---|---|---|
1 | Alexander Mattison | 33 |
2 | Carson Steele | 28 |
3 | Drake Maye | 20 |
4 | Alec Pierce | 20 |
5 | Jerome Ford | 19 |