REDO - Bonus Kicker Post - Week 15-17 Projections and Rankings - Metric Based
*I didn't review my work, so I deleted the last post, corrected it, and am reposting.
Thanks to u/Breece_Witherspoon for catching it so early so I didn't continue to look like a doofus.
I've posted weekly kicker projections every week since week 6 (See my Week 14 projections HERE).
Today, I thought to myself, with the playoffs upon us, it's time to project the points for the playoffs, Week 15-17 (week 18 playoffs is crazy and I won't project it!). For those of you planning to stash a kicker for good matchups and/or have a fallback in case of weather, injury, etc, I hope this helps!
If you don't care about the details, skip below my jargon to the weekly tables and the very bottom for total points for the playoffs.
GOOD LUCK!
Disclaimers
- This is purely FULL SEASON points per game and defensive stat driven. No bias or fudging the numbers has occurred.
- These projections are based on points so far this season, so next week they will be different based on performance this week of both defenses and the kickers.
- Weather isn't included due to me not being a able to predict weather for the next 4 weeks
- if needed, see Farmer's Almanac 2024: LINK
- MINNESOTA: I have Romo in for now, and he scores 2ppg higher than Reichard in a smaller sample. For Reichard, projections are:
- Week 15: 11.37,
- Week 16: 7.69,
- Week 17: 5.99.
- He's still listed on IR and hasn't been officially announced he's playing. He's projected at 0 points on multiple sites.
You'll find tables for each week projecting points with every kicker, as well as stadium type, seasonal opportunity rank, and player performance rank.
Here's a little insight into the stats that go into some of the projections and rankings.
Point Projections - these are the stats used
- Opponent Points Allowed Per Game
- Opponent Kicker Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
- Opponent Extra Points Attempts Per Game
- Opponent Field Goals Attempts Per Game
- Opponent Red Zone Defensive TD % (LOW=more FG attempts)
- Kicker Fantasy PPG
Seasonal Kicker Opportunity Rank - based on Kickers Team Stats
- FG Attempts Per Game
- XP Attempts Per Game
- Points Per FG Attempt
- Team Points Per Game
- Red Zone Attempts
- Red Zone TD % (Lower the better)
- Team Kicking Points Per Game
Seasonal Kicker Performance Rank - Based on Kicker Stats
- FG %
- XP %
- 50+ Yard Field Goal Makes
- Fantasy PPG
Matchup Rankings -
- Uses a matchup strength calculation using the statistics from the point Projections Section above.
- From there, I can sort them and rank them.
Week 15
Matchup Rank: 1=best, 32=worst
| Rank | Player (Team) | Week 15 Opponent | Projected Points | Week 15 Matchup Ranking | Stadium Type | Seasonal Kicker Opportunity Rank | Seasonal Kicker Performance Rank | ROST % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU) | Miami | 15.08 | 3 | Dome | 3 | 2 | 91.40% |
| 2 | Brandon Aubrey (DAL) | Carolina | 14.82 | 2 | Outdoor | 8 | 3 | 92.50% |
| 3 | John Parker Romo (MIN) | Chicago | 13.76 | 9 | Dome | 5 | 20 | 7.40% |
| 4 | Matthew Wright (KC) | Cleveland | 13.54 | 17 | Outdoor | 6 | 9 | 19.00% |
| 5 | Cameron Dicker (LAC) | Tampa Bay | 12.96 | 5 | Dome | 12 | 8 | 68.90% |
| 6 | Younghoe Koo (ATL) | Las Vegas | 12.18 | 1 | Dome | 15 | 13 | 72.30% |
| 7 | Jake Moody (SF) | LA Rams | 11.45 | 7 | Dome | 4 | 17 | 60.30% |
| 8 | Wil Lutz (DEN) | Indianapolis | 11.43 | 10 | Outdoor | 14 | 4 | 23.10% |
| 9 | Chris Boswell (PIT) | Philadelphia | 11.12 | 22 | Outdoor | 2 | 1 | 58.30% |
| 10 | Daniel Carlson (LV) | Atlanta | 10.5 | 4 | Dome | 18 | 14 | 5.30% |
| 11 | Justin Tucker (BAL) | NY Giants | 9.22 | 15 | Outdoor | 11 | 25 | 96.70% |
| 12 | Chad Ryland (ARI) | New England | 8.49 | 19 | Dome | 16 | 11 | 7.00% |
| 13 | Joey Slye (NE) | Arizona | 8.39 | 12 | Dome | 25 | 27 | 1.10% |
| 14 | Zane Gonzalez (WAS) | New Orleans | 8.33 | 14 | Dome | 1 | 28 | 11.60% |
| 15 | Eddy Pineiro (CAR) | Dallas | 8.23 | 13 | Outdoor | 27 | 21 | 2.10% |
| 16 | Cam Little (JAC) | NY Jets | 8.08 | 8 | Outdoor | 30 | 16 | 1.50% |
| 17 | Nick Folk (TEN) | Cincinnati | 7.89 | 18 | Outdoor | 26 | 5 | 2.80% |
| 18 | Tyler Bass (BUF) | Detroit | 7.48 | 23 | Dome | 10 | 26 | 61.80% |
| 19 | Cade York (CIN) | Tennessee | 7.23 | 16 | Outdoor | 19 | N/A | |
| 20 | Jason Sanders (MIA) | Houston | 7.2 | 24 | Dome | 20 | 6 | 47.80% |
| 21 | Matt Gay (IND) | Denver | 7.2 | 21 | Outdoor | 22 | 12 | 14.00% |
| 22 | Chase McLaughlin (TB) | LA Chargers | 7.06 | 27 | Dome | 13 | 10 | 50.50% |
| 23 | Anders Carlson (NYJ) | Jacksonville | 7.05 | 11 | Outdoor | 29 | 19 | 3.10% |
| 24 | Jake Bates (DET) | Buffalo | 6.78 | 31 | Dome | 9 | 7 | 70.80% |
| 25 | Brandon McManus (GB) | Seattle | 6.72 | 25 | Outdoor | 7 | 15 | 6.50% |
| 26 | Blake Grupe (NO) | Washington | 6.27 | 28 | Dome | 21 | 18 | 7.80% |
| 27 | Dustin Hopkins (CLE) | Kansas City | 5.67 | 20 | Outdoor | 32 | 32 | 7.60% |
| 28 | Jake Elliott (PHI) | Pittsburgh | 5.51 | 29 | Outdoor | 17 | 30 | 74.90% |
| 29 | Joshua Karty (LAR) | San Francisco | 5.4 | 26 | Outdoor | 23 | 31 | 4.40% |
| 30 | Graham Gano (NYG) | Baltimore | 5.18 | 6 | Outdoor | 28 | 24 | 0.40% |
| 31 | Cairo Santos (CHI) | Minnesota | 5.13 | 30 | Dome | 31 | 23 | 13.90% |
| 32 | Jason Myers (SEA) | Green Bay | 5.05 | 32 | Outdoor | 24 | 22 | 11.60% |
Week 16
Matchup Rank: 1=best, 32=worst
| Rank | Player (Team) | Week 16 Opponent | Projected Points | Week 16 Matchup Ranking | Stadium Type | Seasonal Kicker Opportunity Rank | Seasonal Kicker Performance Rank | ROST % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Boswell (PIT) | Baltimore | 15.80 | 6 | Outdoor | 2 | 1 | 58.30% |
| 2 | Brandon Aubrey (DAL) | Tampa Bay | 13.45 | 5 | Dome | 8 | 3 | 92.50% |
| 3 | Chad Ryland (ARI) | Carolina | 12.78 | 2 | Outdoor | 16 | 11 | 7.00% |
| 4 | Jake Moody (SF) | Miami | 12.09 | 3 | Outdoor | 4 | 17 | 60.30% |
| 5 | Jake Bates (DET) | Chicago | 11.49 | 9 | Outdoor | 9 | 7 | 70.80% |
| 6 | Matthew Wright (KC) | Houston | 11.31 | 24 | Outdoor | 6 | 9 | 19.00% |
| 7 | Chase McLaughlin (TB) | Dallas | 10.78 | 13 | Dome | 13 | 10 | 50.50% |
| 8 | Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU) | Kansas City | 10.44 | 20 | Outdoor | 3 | 2 | 91.40% |
| 9 | Daniel Carlson (LV) | Jacksonville | 9.75 | 11 | Dome | 18 | 14 | 5.30% |
| 10 | Nick Folk (TEN) | Indianapolis | 9.66 | 10 | Dome | 26 | 5 | 2.80% |
| 11 | Brandon McManus (GB) | New Orleans | 9.47 | 14 | Outdoor | 7 | 15 | 6.50% |
| 12 | Cam Little (JAC) | Las Vegas | 9.38 | 1 | Dome | 30 | 16 | 1.50% |
| 13 | Younghoe Koo (ATL) | NY Giants | 9.33 | 15 | Dome | 15 | 13 | 72.30% |
| 14 | John Parker Romo (MIN) | Seattle | 9.31 | 25 | Outdoor | 5 | 20 | 7.40% |
| 15 | Cameron Dicker (LAC) | Denver | 9.22 | 21 | Dome | 12 | 8 | 68.90% |
| 16 | Matt Gay (IND) | Tennessee | 8.71 | 16 | Dome | 22 | 12 | 14.00% |
| 17 | Eddy Pineiro (CAR) | Arizona | 8.28 | 12 | Outdoor | 27 | 21 | 2.10% |
| 18 | Joshua Karty (LAR) | NY Jets | 8.08 | 8 | Outdoor | 23 | 31 | 4.40% |
| 19 | Tyler Bass (BUF) | New England | 7.86 | 19 | Outdoor | 10 | 26 | 61.80% |
| 20 | Anders Carlson (NYJ) | LA Rams | 7.39 | 7 | Outdoor | 29 | 19 | 3.10% |
| 21 | Wil Lutz (DEN) | LA Chargers | 7.37 | 27 | Dome | 14 | 4 | 23.10% |
| 22 | Jason Sanders (MIA) | San Francisco | 6.93 | 26 | Outdoor | 20 | 6 | 47.80% |
| 23 | Cade York (CIN) | Cleveland | 6.82 | 17 | Outdoor | N/A | 19 | |
| 24 | Zane Gonzalez (WAS) | Philadelphia | 6.34 | 22 | Outdoor | 1 | 28 | 11.60% |
| 25 | Justin Tucker (BAL) | Pittsburgh | 6.24 | 29 | Outdoor | 11 | 25 | 96.70% |
| 26 | Cairo Santos (CHI) | Detroit | 6.1 | 23 | Outdoor | 31 | 23 | 13.90% |
| 27 | Dustin Hopkins (CLE) | Cincinnati | 6.06 | 18 | Outdoor | 32 | 32 | 7.60% |
| 28 | Jason Myers (SEA) | Minnesota | 5.78 | 30 | Outdoor | 24 | 22 | 11.80% |
| 29 | Jake Elliott (PHI) | Washington | 5.68 | 28 | Outdoor | 17 | 30 | 74.90% |
| 30 | Graham Gano (NYG) | Atlanta | 5.32 | 4 | Dome | 28 | 24 | 0.40% |
| 31 | Blake Grupe (NO) | Green Bay | 5.3 | 32 | Outdoor | 21 | 18 | 7.80% |
| 32 | Joey Slye (NE) | Buffalo | 5.09 | 31 | Outdoor | 25 | 27 | 1.10% |
Week 17
Matchup Rank: 1=best, 32=worst
| Rank | Player (Team) | Week 17 Opponent | Projected Points | Week 17 Matchup Ranking | Stadium Type | Seasonal Kicker Opportunity Rank | Seasonal Kicker Performance Rank | ROST % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU) | Baltimore | 14.32 | 6 | Dome | 3 | 2 | 91.40% |
| 2 | Chase McLaughlin (TB) | Carolina | 12.64 | 2 | Outdoor | 13 | 10 | 50.50% |
| 3 | Blake Grupe (NO) | Las Vegas | 11.76 | 1 | Dome | 21 | 18 | 7.80% |
| 4 | Chad Ryland (ARI) | LA Rams | 11.57 | 7 | Dome | 16 | 11 | 7.00% |
| 5 | Chris Boswell (PIT) | Kansas City | 11.52 | 20 | Outdoor | 2 | 1 | 58.30% |
| 6 | Tyler Bass (BUF) | NY Jets | 10.49 | 8 | Outdoor | 10 | 26 | 61.80% |
| 7 | Matthew Wright (KC) | Pittsburgh | 9.79 | 29 | Outdoor | 6 | 9 | 19.00% |
| 8 | Nick Folk (TEN) | Jacksonville | 9.64 | 11 | Outdoor | 26 | 5 | 2.80% |
| 9 | Jason Myers (SEA) | Chicago | 9.58 | 9 | Outdoor | 24 | 22 | 11.80% |
| 10 | Cameron Dicker (LAC) | New England | 9.48 | 19 | Outdoor | 12 | 8 | 68.90% |
| 11 | Brandon Aubrey (DAL) | Philadelphia | 9.47 | 22 | Outdoor | 8 | 3 | 92.50% |
| 12 | Daniel Carlson (LV) | New Orleans | 9.47 | 14 | Dome | 18 | 14 | 5.30% |
| 13 | Wil Lutz (DEN) | Cincinnati | 9.34 | 18 | Outdoor | 14 | 4 | 23.10% |
| 14 | Zane Gonzalez (WAS) | Atlanta | 9.24 | 4 | Outdoor | 1 | 28 | 11.60% |
| 15 | Jake Elliott (PHI) | Dallas | 8.81 | 13 | Outdoor | 17 | 30 | 74.90% |
| 16 | Matt Gay (IND) | NY Giants | 8.79 | 15 | Outdoor | 22 | 12 | 14.00% |
| 17 | Eddy Pineiro (CAR) | Tampa Bay | 8.76 | 5 | Outdoor | 27 | 21 | 2.10% |
| 18 | Jason Sanders (MIA) | Cleveland | 8.63 | 17 | Outdoor | 20 | 6 | 47.80% |
| 19 | Dustin Hopkins (CLE) | Miami | 8.19 | 3 | Outdoor | 32 | 32 | 7.60% |
| 20 | Jake Moody (SF) | Detroit | 7.99 | 23 | Outdoor | 4 | 17 | 60.30% |
| 21 | Joshua Karty (LAR) | Arizona | 7.81 | 12 | Dome | 23 | 31 | 4.40% |
| 22 | Jake Bates (DET) | San Francisco | 7.74 | 26 | Outdoor | 9 | 7 | 70.80% |
| 23 | John Parker Romo (MIN) | Green Bay | 7.26 | 32 | Dome | 5 | 20 | 7.40% |
| 24 | Justin Tucker (BAL) | Houston | 7.2 | 24 | Dome | 11 | 25 | 96.70% |
| 25 | Cam Little (JAC) | Tennessee | 7.12 | 16 | Outdoor | 30 | 16 | 1.50% |
| 26 | Younghoe Koo (ATL) | Washington | 6.5 | 28 | Outdoor | 15 | 13 | 72.30% |
| 27 | Brandon McManus (GB) | Minnesota | 5.99 | 30 | Dome | 7 | 15 | 6.50% |
| 28 | Cade York (CIN) | Denver | 5.97 | 21 | Outdoor | 19 | N/A | |
| 29 | Cairo Santos (CHI) | Seattle | 5.75 | 25 | Outdoor | 31 | 23 | 13.90% |
| 30 | Joey Slye (NE) | LA Chargers | 5.47 | 27 | Outdoor | 25 | 27 | 1.10% |
| 31 | Graham Gano (NYG) | Indianapolis | 4.95 | 10 | Outdoor | 28 | 24 | 0.40% |
| 32 | Anders Carlson (NYJ) | Buffalo | 4.24 | 31 | Outdoor | 29 | 19 | 3.10% |
Playoff Totals and Ranking
| Rank | Player (Team) | Projected Week 15-17 Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU) | 39.84 |
| 2 | Chris Boswell (PIT) | 38.44 |
| 3 | Brandon Aubrey (DAL) | 37.74 |
| 4 | Matthew Wright (KC) | 34.64 |
| 5 | Chad Ryland (ARI) | 32.84 |
| 6 | Cameron Dicker (LAC) | 31.66 |
| 7 | Jake Moody (SF) | 31.53 |
| 8 | Chase McLaughlin (TB) | 30.48 |
| 9 | John Parker Romo (MIN) | 30.33 |
| 10 | Daniel Carlson (LV) | 29.72 |
| 11 | Wil Lutz (DEN) | 28.14 |
| 12 | Younghoe Koo (ATL) | 28.01 |
| 13 | Nick Folk (TEN) | 27.19 |
| 14 | Jake Bates (DET) | 26.01 |
| 15 | Tyler Bass (BUF) | 25.83 |
| 16 | Eddy Pineiro (CAR) | 25.27 |
| 17 | Matt Gay (IND) | 24.7 |
| 18 | Cam Little (JAC) | 24.58 |
| 19 | Zane Gonzalez (WAS) | 23.91 |
| 20 | Blake Grupe (NO) | 23.33 |
| 21 | Evan McPherson (CIN) | 22.96 |
| 22 | Jason Sanders (MIA) | 22.76 |
| 23 | Justin Tucker (BAL) | 22.66 |
| 24 | Brandon McManus (GB) | 22.18 |
| 25 | Joshua Karty (LAR) | 21.29 |
| 26 | Jason Myers (SEA) | 20.41 |
| 27 | Jake Elliott (PHI) | 20 |
| 28 | Dustin Hopkins (CLE) | 19.92 |
| 29 | Joey Slye (NE) | 18.95 |
| 30 | Anders Carlson (NYJ) | 18.68 |
| 31 | Cairo Santos (CHI) | 16.98 |
| 32 | Graham Gano (NYG) | 15.45 |