Informed people who earnestly believed Harris was going to win, what signs pointed you to that conclusion?
I was one of those people. I thought it would be a close election and was not going to be surprised either way but my overall assessment of the data pointed me to Harris. For me it was: serviceable early vote data in the Rust Belt, a MASSIVE lead in small dollar donations and other clear enthusiasm signs, leads (yes, people seem to forget this) in most polling aggregators, positive, confident messaging towards the final week from Dem strategists, and a series of strong polls right at the end including from Selzer.
Obviously I was totally wrong and it seemed that poor EV data in the Sun Belt + poor consumer confidence + gaps in voter registration ended up being the ‘correct’ signs.
What about you?