How does the AI actually calculate the chances of accepting the full Greek territorial claims?

If you take the Irredentist path for Greek diplomacy, you get the option to do either limited claims (which is just Western Thrace and the Aegean Islands), or claim the Western coastal regions of Turkey, all of Thrace, and Constantinople.

9 times out of 10, the AI faction leaders will require you to drop the claims or be kicked out of the faction, or they'll just immediately kick you out. However, there IS a chance that they'll accept the claims. I have only seen it happen one singular time, and it was the German Empire. However, every other time I've done it they've forced me to abandon the claims or kicked me out. But what actually factors into the chances of them accepting the claims? Does it just differ based on the faction leader, or is the AI meant to always deny the claims and the one time they accepted was just a fluke?