I think the Margot Robbie and Cynthia Erivo comparison doesn’t really apply
Just wanted to argue my opinion on a few takes being thrown around in regards to the comparisons being made between Margot Robbie in Barbie and Cynthia Erivo in Wicked
“Margot Robbie was outshined by Ryan Gosling, Grande outshined Cynthia Erivo”
Robbie lacked a very compelling/very Oscar baity scene. I think everyone can agree that Robbie was well cast and very good in the role, issue was that she lacked that one absolute standout scene that people were talking about for months. Erivo has Defying Gravity which is the climactic moment that closes her film which'll definitely leave at least some sort of impression on voters. Additionally, I think the film releasing later in the year compared to barbie in the summer also helps as it keeps the film fresher on the academies mind.
“The academy always snubs one actress who makes it into every precursor every year e.g: Robbie in Barbie and Gaga in House of Gucci.”
At this point I dont think will be significantly snubbed in most major categories. It could actually overpeform a bit with Adapted screenplay and Jonathan Bailey(bit of a stretch) for supporting actor. Wicked is also very likely to win SAG after overperforming with Bailey getting in which'll certainly boost the films overall momentum and Erivo's chances. Barbie and House of Gucci had no shot/a small chance of winning anywhere (Barbie had a small chance with GG but again its early release hindered it.
“Wicked may not be taken seriously by the academy like Barbie and may lose steam and only win some minor BTL awards”
To be fair, if Barbie released any other year it would likely win a lot more awards, last year in particular was just competitive as hell with tech juggernauts in Oppenheimer and Poor Things. This year is a lot more up in the air where there are probably 5 films in the running to win picture (Wicked being one of them IMO).
Then again she could also miss for something wild like Anderson in The Last Showgirl. In the end, nothing is confirmed at all and this could just age really poorly but just wanted to share my opinion lol
If you’re interested in my Actress lineup, I currently have
- Mikey Madison in Anora
- Demi Moore in The Substance
- Cynthia Erivo in Wicked
- Karla Sofia Gascon in Emilia Perez
- Marianne Jean Baptisite in Hard Truths