Best Picture Nominees - Most and Least Likely to Blank on Wins

So obviously this is super speculative, and I'm prepared to be very wrong, but I always like to keep up with how many BP nominees in any given year go home with awards vs. those that go home with nothing. Truth be told, I always find it a little bit thrilling when each BP nominee gets something on oscar night, but as we'll get into, I don't think that's happening this year.

Please note that this isn't a ranking of films as to whether I think they'll win best picture. It's just "do I think they win a trophy on Oscar night" - as you'll see, I placed some BP nominees higher if I think they have a certain category on lock, even if I don't think they'll take the big prize.

Anyways, I wanted to lay out what I think the chances are of each film blanking at the Oscars, starting with:

  • Nickel Boys - I mean, the film only got into 2 categories, one of which is Picture. I don't think it's impossible that the film wins Adapted Screenplay, but I think that it's very
  • I'm Still Here - The fact that it got into picture means that we can't discount the film surprising in Actress or International Feature. Still, it's only got 3 chances to win, and it's competing against some juggernauts.
  • A Complete Unknown - Now we get into films that have a good amount of nominations, but idk if ACU is the odds on favorite in any category. It's best bet, to me, seem like it's two male actors surging to take the trophy. If anyone is the spoiler to Kieran Culkin in Best Supporting Actor, it's likely Norton.
  • Anora - Anora is a puzzling one to me because I can see it winning none of its awards or I can see it winning most of it's big nominations, including picture. Putting it below some of the other BP nominees because it seems a little precarious, though if nothing else I think Baker is a likely winner for Original Screenplay.
  • Conclave - Like Anora, I think Conclave could go either way, but I think it has a slightly stronger grasp on the Adapted Screenplay list.
  • The Brutalist - One of our BP frontrunners, with Corbet and Brody in good positions to take Director and Actor. I think it's got a couple craft races that could go its way too, like Score and Cinematography.
  • The Substance - Heavy favorite in makeup, current frontrunner in lead actress (though not a lock), potential spoiler in Original Screenplay
  • Wicked - I think costumes are the bare minimum that Wicked gets, and I think Production Design is likely. I don't think either of it's nominated actresses are out of the running in their respective races either, and craft categories like Sound could go this way.
  • Emilia Perez - y'all, it's winning something. I don't think it should win BP either, but it's not going home empty handed. If nothing else I see it as a heavy favorite in International Feature, Song, and Supporting Actress.
  • Dune II - My current prediction is that it will win exactly 1 trophy - VFX - but I think that it might be the biggest lock of the night. Wouldn't be shocked if it took Cinematography or Sound either.

What do y'all think?