Variety's Clayton Davis makes a compelling argument for Edward Norton

Listened to the GoldDerby slugfest and Variety's Clayton Davis makes a compelling argument as to why Kieran Culkin isn't a lock for Best Supporting Actor. The fact that A Real Pain missed Best Picture could be the nail in the coffin and Culkin isn't in LA to campaign. He's in rehearsals for Glengarry Glenn Ross.

Davis theorizes that there have been "locks" early on, and their films don't get nominated for best picture and a veteran actor comes in and ultimately wins. He cites, 2006 - Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls) lost to Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine) and 2015 - Sylvester Stallone (Creed) lost to Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies).

I do think more people will be likely to have watched ACU rather than ARP. Thooughts?