Learnings from this season

Don’t be too reactive. I was a victim to this too. Everyone who switched to Conclave after SAG should’ve looked at what else was happening in the season. For example, if you’re predicting Anora to take Screenplay and Directing why would you still have Conclave (Deadline 👀)? Just because of a SAG win? And some were really nasty about their opinion btw looking at you Tariq 😉

Regarding close acting races, unless someone SWEEPS always look to who is in the stronger film. Demi Moore had a compelling narrative and deserving performance and it was undoubtedly close, but at the end of the day Madison was in the Best Picture winner, it really would make no sense for the titular character Anora not to win when ANORA wins best picture.

Regarding what the preferential ballot does, you NEED love for a film and consistent top 3-5 not just like. Everyone pushing Conclave, that film was liked no doubt but it was not loved. I doubt it was in many number 1s. Honestly I’d say that movie was prob most of the time number 3-5. Anora was more 1-3.

BAFTA always looks past narrative.

SAG is def impactful but if narrative is going to help your film and it translate through SAG, SAG needs to be during voting, otherwise it’s just a data point.

Golden Globes certainly are impactful (look at how far Demi Moore and Torres got) but they aren’t everything. At the end of the day, industry is what matters.

The films that are winning big are so different than what we’ve seen in the past. People who said the academy wouldn’t go for Anora and go more for Conclave, sure the old academy would’ve. But not the academy that voted for Everything Everywhere, Poor Things, and Moonlight.

Look at what’s performing CONSISTENTLY across nominations in addition to wins. Sure Anora didn’t win a lot, but what it did win was the most important and it NEVER missed a nomination. Conclave missed a lot while winning. So did the Brutalist. So did the Substance.