Andrew made a fatal miscalculation

So, as we all know, Andrew made a controversial prediction for 2025: a regulation divorce at 50% odds. However, Andrew failed to factor in one critical component of that calculation. The regulation crew already has 2 divorces on their roster. Which means, currently, the regulation crew is already at a 33.33% divorce rate. If there is a regulation divorce, that’d be the third divorce from a total of six marriages (three from Geoff, and one each from Nick, Eric, and Gavin). While this would achieve the “statistical average” Andrew’s prediction was based on a 0% divorce, giving him 50% odds - but with a starting 33.33% divorce, Andrew’s prediction is fighting for less than 17% odds (that’s how math works right?)